According to the Turkish Exporters Assembly, exports regarding general trading system increased by 1 billion dollars to 10 billion dollars with respect to the previous month in May 2020. In April, exports fell to 9 billion dollars which are the levels seen during the 08/09 global financial crisis.
The main reason behind the rise of exports in May is the easing in the deterioration particularly in Germany’s manufacturing sector which is the largest exports market of Turkey.
According to J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI data, global output continued to decline at a slower rate in May, after record lower levels in April. With two exceptions: China and Kazakhstan. The message from these two exceptions is this: easing in isolation brings a rise in both production and output prices.
There is a risk of second wave in pandemic. In this case, we will see a decline in industrial output again. On the other hand, easing in isolation measures will lead to rise in both production and employment. However, we will start to talk about the inflation pressures if the improvement in the sector continues. Who will get affected the most? Particularly, the lower income household: They were exposed to harsh price increases following appearing the pandemic in Turkey, they will expose to the rise in output prices.
Fulya Gürbüz, Ph.D.